Strategy Change: Sell the rallies

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Dear Investor,

NIFTY Monthly chart reveals change of strategy. The market correction is not happening all of sudden. The bull market is about change its character into bear market. You don't need somebody to tell you this. Just see monthly chart and you will see that market is trading below dotted red support line.

Lets verify our conclusion with on weekly chart. I see that market is slowly making new lows and grinding lower. It rallies into red support (now resistance) line and then comes back down from there. Its quite obvious  market is behaving like this. There is some kind of uncertainty in market. Nobody knows whats going to happen and that is not a very good feeling. Basic only thing certain right now is uncertainty. So most likely you will make only if you go short when market rallies. There is serious change in strategy needed.

Take a look at 15 year monthly chart. You will find out that market usually does not break red support line. It always bounces from that point. But for past few months it has been flat and then it turned down. There is a sign that most likely move is on downside than on upside. But don't take Mr Market for granted. It could go up to surprise all of us. I believe shorting the rally is best option to take now.

FII investment is not very encouraging. FII are not out of market completely but they are not entering with full force. The force that is needed to trade the market up. I believe that there is something big going to be disclosed in near term. Be careful and good luck.

Thanks
Anil
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Stock Tip : Eveready Industries

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Dear Investor,

Indian stocks have become challenging. One day they pick of 500 points and after few hours they fall 500 points. It is a clear situation of uncertain future. Investors are loosing money on these sea-saw movements of market. Our last weeks stock tips have outperformed the market. While market is moving down these stocks gained and most of them are holding on to these gains. The reason for that is the systematic look at the chart patterns and trying to find the secular bull in individual stocks. Trust be right now the situation is not at all clear  about where we will end up.

Following NIFTY stock chart is clear view on how the market has trapped some traders betting on blue chip stocks. Blue chip or no chip, it does not matter. What matters is to find a secular bull market in a stock and buy it even if it is not blue chip. Market trapped many by breaking about the solid blue line and quickly correcting afterwords. RBI has not been very helpful lately.

This week I am proposing two India stock tips, one on long side and one on short side. Eveready Industries is not in a secular bull market but it has started to move into one. It will still be a early call but I am 80 percent sure that this stock will move upwards during next few months. Look at the chart formation, volume action and most of it, this stock is not selling off when others blue chips are being sold down.

Shorting EDUCOMP solutions is new tip I can give you. Dont go crazy with shoring because it can backfire very bad. This is more of educational reference than actual action item. See this stock has been in secular bear market. It just broke its long term support and selling action is more prominent than buy action. This baby will bounce and go down more and bounce and go down more. These is something seriously wrong with this stock.

I believe we will have some bounce in stock market once debt crises debate is over in US. Help me add more subscribers to this blog by posting my link on your facebook page or forwarding to your friends.

Thanks
India Stock Tips
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Stocks Breaking out to Upside

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Dear Investor,

India stock market trend is sideways. It has not moved for last one month from the range I had drawn and I keep posting it all the time. It is just to give you perspective. I found few stocks that are breaking out to new high. These present best opportunities to hold on to for some time to come. These will less likely return profit in neat term but you have to adopt accumulation mode. Market does not have any clarity of what to do so it just moving up and down with no real sense of future prospect. Remember one thing, market does not pay for past performance, the entire game is based on future prospects. That is why sometimes companies that do not really make money today are highly valued and there companies that report great earnings get sold off. So always keep your eyes open for future prospects.

Above NIFTY chart has some kind of bullish touch to entire sentiment of trading. Especially if you note the green lines on the above chart. Basically market did nothing in last so many days but when market moves on upside there are massive volumes. People just jump in to buy stocks. So it has bullish touch.

India stock tip for this week is Bharti Airtel. This stock has been showing strength and right now its breaking out to new highs. It probably will pull back and forth but what you have to learn is that it is in uptrend. You buy stock in uptrend and just sit on it. Let the market do its dance. you stay with your pick.

Second India stock tip for this week is Everest Kanto, It appears to be ready to break on upside. Very long base, healthy volume and tight rang bound trading give signal to investors that breakout to upside is on cards. It the breakout does not succeed then it will not be good picture. I am pretty sure this one has potential though.

Surprise India Stock for tip is IDEA. I would like to know more about this one if anybody has more information. It is very appealing stock to hold.

IPCL just hit all time high. There is probability of more gains in future.

Pantaloon Retail is catching up with Bharti Retail. I see the chart pattern is very bullish and will break out soon to upside.

Thanks
India Stock Tips
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Day traders paradise NSE and BSE exchanges

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Dear Investor,

India Stock Tips in current market environment is difficult. This market has become day trader's paradise. There is certainly no direction in markets, it trades with a wide range of 500 points. Only day trader will make money in these environment. Its hard to find any investment grade stock. One significant move past week made is clear that we are about to break the downtrend. Market is likely to move up no matter what the world is doing. I am not convinced that market keep shooting higher because I do not see many stocks in this market are actually moving higher. They are not even in significant base building pattern but current action cannot be ignored. Observe folliwing chart and look for blue line joining all past tops. It is trying to break to upside. Buy side volumes are bigger and sell side volumes are low. You have to give it to bulls and agree that market is trying to find a reason to rally. Do not forget stocks do rally before earning in anticipation of better results and market makers will sell it after the earnings are released.

DCB is building good long term base and it should be bought after it closed above 64. Base is a long sideways action in stock that tells you that there is value at this range and current investors are not willing to sell at this price. After a period of consolidation in this range the stock will break this range either to upside or to downside. Current action is bullish in DCB because there is good upside volume and very low downside volume. This is why DCB is India stock Tip of this week.

Thanks
India Stock Tip
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Short Cover Rally and Confused Investor

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Dear Investor,

As I keep reiterating, expect wild swings. We are not out of downtrend yet. The rally we saw was a short cover rally. Lot of people were short in this marker and sudden uptrend start pushed them to cover their positions by buying at higher prices. But we should not ignore the uptrend, no matter what is the underlying reason for rally. Market is going up and we should open our eyes to stocks that have true upside potential. There is no need to get trapped in with something rallying without strong reason to buy. Do not buy because of fear of loosing out. That is a main reason people get trapped.

Following NIFTY chart clearly shows the downtrend line starting last October. Be ready for fast moves up as well as down.

Please add following stocks to your watch list

DHCL stock is forming  a long term base and buying pressure is higher than selling pressure. There is a possibility of rally in this stock.

Textile stocks have started long term bullish moves. I find Arvind Limited is leading the sector. Really investment grade move in this stock.

Bata India is leading entire corrective period that means there is something going on with this stock.

Another textile stock Century Textiles forming base and waiting to break out

Shree Renuka Sugar just formed double V pattern, This is assumed to be very good buying pattern.

Pantaloon Retail is coming out of base. Really good move is expected in this stock.

Another good stock to keep watch is Punj Lloyd

Do not feel bad that you missed great rally. This could be little tricky but this is how the market has been moving now a days. Pick a direction and then run in that direct without any supporting arguments. The problems for sell off are not resolved. But we should only look at the market movement and not the news. If market is moving up the be it. You run in the same direction.

Thanks
Anil
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A Look at the big pictures

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Dear Investor,

Overall market is not looking good. Its very clear. Daily gyrations and struggle to pick the stock at bottom is crushing many people. People just can't accept that market is downtrend. Its very obvious but we want to ignore it. It has happened in past and it will happen again. Next week will come with few surprises. One of them will be linked to Greek bailout and we will see markets see saw. Suddenly there will be a day for great rise or a day of great fall. This market will not make money for anybody. It will only catch you and let you think for a long time in your life. I have been repeating it for past three weeks, let it go. Let it alone and just be a obedient observer of the play. It will unfold in mysterious way. Reason is simple, there is no real conviction about the global growth anymore.

I bring this chart up for you to learn, how a true bottom is formed in downtrend. Downtrends go through phases of sell of. Look at any stock charts and you will know that why I am stressing on downtrends. Downtrends is when you will not make money. Stock will move up for few days only to go down more. Simple indicator you should look to check the health of market is check stock of Infosys and Reliance. Are these stocks moving up words. If the answer is no then you know, smart money is leaving market and parking their money somewhere else. Above chart the bottom blue color band is where bottom was formed. Even though it looks like we had great sell off, we are no where close to the 2008 bottom valuation. Current correction is tiny compared to past years rise. Time when you throw money at any stock and double it is gone. That was unusual time is stock market history. These kind of situation arise only once in 25 years. Now you have to learn, how to make money in stock. Wait for proper market uptrend. Do not guess bottoms.

Above daily chart of NIFTY clearly marks the downtrend in general market. There will be few up and down days but we need to wait for going long in this market. There is no panic selling yet. Masses are still holding on well that means the bottom is not in yet. Keep close on European news. It will all depend on that. As of now the news is not encouraging.

Thanks
Anil
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Cash the crash

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Dear Investor,

You exactly know what is going on in investment world. There is a strong risk aversion taking place now. Many retail investor have failed to cash the crash last time and I think they are just waiting for their repeat chance. While governments are making every effort to avoid bubble and contain inflation. India is well ahead in the curve but US and Europe are suffering from crazy internal situation. You can read a lot about in Bloomberg.com. There is serious problem about basic functioning of money especially how it is created and how there is unfair tax to rest of the world when developed nations print money at will and make things expensive for all of us. The very money you are working to make your life easier, has lost and will continue to loose value. This piece of paper is becoming worthless as time passes. Bottom line, be clever, use your money for your desires and do not postpone plans. Money is abundant and will come back again but time will not. Enjoy every single day.

Rich and Smart inevitable buy stocks when the market crashes. Many are trapped because the bottom is arrived already and jump in with their money. My humble request is learn about these markets. Do not waste your time and money guessing things. Market is very much predictable. One point that I have not learned is at what point does the market think..okay..this is a bottom for a stock. It just seems to happens with no logic. The direction of market right now is very clear. Not many of the stock buying will return profit. I am giving few promising ideas below. The crash is not here yet, It could come or may not come. But rich always buy upon any crash and you should too.

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Following three stocks are showing buying interest. These are not falling with all market so may be good to watch and play a small game with stop loss.

Thanks
Anil
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Can we stop trading? Let it work its own thing..

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Dear Investor,

Just let it go. Stop trading. Just be a disciplined observer than a bottom guesser. I think its not a good time to take any new positions. Long term holdings are okay to have because they are going to be with you for time to come. Overall, There is so much 2008 like news floating in air that even though companies are well priced investors are not willing to trade risk now. In fact, I believe smart money has already left market and waiting for buying opportunity to strike.

Overall world markets are heading for exit. Its not a bad time to accumulate shares of good companies, I just suspect that we will get better prices in near future. Market sentiment does not look good to me.

Thanks
Anil
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Negativity Outweighs Positivity

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Dear Investor,

Risk aversion has been the theme for quite some time. People are trying to be momentum traders. Check out the world market situation at http://sites.google.com/site/stockmarkettrend/country-etf-daily Almost all countries stock market are trying to come down. The idea of free money is evaporating from the marketplace. After end of treasury bond purchase program from US FEDs, its going to be tough to find free money in this world. You already know what RBI is up to. It is toughening money supply to control inflation. Overall there is risk aversion. Institutional investors are moving more to cash to buy bargains soon to arrive.

Above chart shows market is flirting with its support line. NIFTY has wall of rocks at 5300. It has not closed below it since April 2010. In April 2010 it was briefly below this support line. All charts of NIFTY components are weak. There is a message for us to be more cautious now. Not to put all your money into market. This market is going to be like this for some time to come.

Some bottom forming visible in above weekly chart but not really exciting opportunity.

Thanks
Anil
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NIFTY back to support line

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Dear Investor,

I am sure you missed me for some time. I was very busy in my personal life taking care of few more important things. Well, the market has reversed very quickly after my few recommendations. I hope you went in only with 1/4 of your money. This is a precise reason I always advocate buy only one fourth of your position and then wait for it to rise. After we get excited markets falls and when are fearful market goes back up again. Market is quickly returned back to support level.

There us possibility of quick bounce from here. The days are gone where you could buy anything and it will double for you. It will not be that situation anymore. You have to be selective in what you buy and go in with slow steps. If you want to try something that could give you some return then United Phosphorous has good looking chart and good buying support.

I do not believe that this market will come crushing down. It will have bumpy ride for sure.

Thanks
Anil
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Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

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Crompton Greaves

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Dear Investor,

Check Our Current Recommendations

NIFTY has turned volatile. Buying pressure outweighs the selling pressure so maintaining upside bias is okay. The market is already pushed higher with anticipation of good earnings.

You can look at Crompton Greaves from technical perspective. Volume is dropping recently but the overall pattern is really good.

Do not get fooled by day to day gyrations. They will be there and that is how it works in financial markets. The overall long term trend is up. Your focus should not be exit when the market sells off. Your focus should be on what to pick up when the market corrects.


Thanks
Anil
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Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.
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Sterlite Technologies

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Dear Investor,

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Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Sterlite Technologies has characteristics of winning stock. I will add it to recommended list but this one is little bit risky. Buy only if you can hold for some time to come.

Thanks
Anil
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Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.
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First round of selling hits market

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Dear Investor,

First round of selling hit market last week. Gains were fast, I mean very very fast. This is what happens in todays stock market it moves rapidly in one direction until you loose your emotional control. It will just force you to take action and then keep wondering. This is exactly what is going on right now.

Observe above upward move. If you carefully read my previous blog, I mentioned that you have to take chances. Now its too late to enter at low risk entry point but you never know whats in future. That is what makes this game fun. Now market markers will find some story, Europe, Japan or may be something else. They have to and they always find one. Surprising thing is that those tricks are no longer working with retail investors. They know that market is going to go up so they just sit around. First round of selling just arrived in market last Friday this is a buying opportunity if you missed just before breakout. Do not hurry, market will be moving up and down a lot. So wait patiently and load up when it drops around support or previous breakout level.

Check Our Current Recommendations

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Camlin breaking out so it is time to buy it. Try to split your investment in four parts and get in with first one fourth. Buy more if it goes up or buy more if it falls more. This stock has build very strong base in past downturn.

Larsen is almost ready to move up. If it moves above 1700, it will quickly move to 2000. It has not broken out yet so I will wait.

Intersting base formed in Provogue. Good to keep in your watchlist.

Suzlon is Dalal street favorite. Lets see if it have power in it.

Thanks
Anil
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Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.
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We deserved to Win World Cup 2011

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Dear Investor,

Congratulations to all of us. I have never seen India unite for a single cause with this intensity. Finally we win World Cup and bring the glory home after 28 years. God bless India and its team.

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NIFTY is on its winning streak for last one week. When it broke out of the sideways pattern I quickly posted list of stocks that could probably make best money and it has performed really well gaining 5 to 15 % in just a week. I will find more stocks as we go forward. I personally believe real estate and infrastructure space will bring in the most gain as rapid pace. Well, this was first breakout and rapid rise in one single week usually greeting will selling pressure in next week. It was also quarter end for mutual fund managers so I am not sure if they play some game to get everybody in to the market. There are not many negatives in financial markets so it makes sense to be in market and look for opportunities.

Many people do not like Anil Ambani Reliance group. Well, I have nothing personal about those investments. I find that following reliance communication chart is textbook base one from here it is expected to move upwards. Your stop loss will be around 100. If the stock closes below 100 then it would prove to be fake breakout.

LIC housing finance is gaining ground. It would be good idea for it to pull back and then start building position. Its breakout on upside is strong.

Reliance capital has characteristics of winning stocks. Almost everything about this chart is positive and one should seriously consider watching this one closely.

NIFTY started moving on upside. I did not expect it to move this far this fast. anyway, it has moved and people are accumulating shares of large cap companies. Stocks are lining up for going up but never rule out chances of corrections. Fast rise is usually followed by fast sell off and then a quick rise again. Point to note is short term uptrend is confirmed, more and more buyers are jumping in so any sell should be used to buy more and build your position bigger and bigger.

This is no time to stay back and keep waiting for correction to give you opportunities. Be selective. Study to charts and I have recommended few stocks above. I will find more for you. This blog subscription is rising fast as we are able to generate profit for people.

Be Happy. Be a Winner. and I know you will be happy and winner both.

Thanks
Anil
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How to identify new stock trends?

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Dear Investor,

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Clearly NIFTY has switched to short term uptrend. Now is the tough time to choose to get in. It could be a fake breakout but you have to take chances now. NIFTY as such can change direction and keep you guessing for all the time until it tops. So now is the time to take some risk and cut losses if proven wrong. Thats all you have in your hands anyway.

I have pointed out the professional buying on above charts. The long green lines are professionals buying with heavy volume. I hope they have done guessing about correction and started to bet on upside. Its a textbook breakout friends. The problem is its only one day since the breakout happened. I am going in. Open to chances now. 

Please add following stocks to your watch list

I find ABAN offshore as just ready to go on upside. Look at the professional buying green volume times. The stock is on breaking down anymore. That is called base formation. I am differing on my open style of buying only after the stock closes above 150 day average line. Well, the opportunity looks so appealing I want to bypass my rule this time.

This chart also shows why day traders fail to make larger gains. The market makers create situations where they excite day traders to buy and then depress them by selling little bit to take the stock back from them. The process happens until the point where day trader exhaust himself and only strong players have all the stocks. That is called playing it professionally. Any way there are few lucky people they win no matter what. I think, not everybody is lucky so you better learn this game and stop burning yourself.

Do you think I need to tell you anything more about the above Ashok leyland Chart. I have marked how the professionals are accumulating stock for Ashok Leyland and how little players have been squeezed out. I do not have anything against market makers, I am only trying to learn their game plan and trying to let you know about it.

Well, following are two charts for your study. Study the green volume times, the chart base formation and what do you predict possible outcome. Send me email about what you feel about it.

Intention of this blog is educate you to invest thoughtfully than just throwing money to any stock and wait for it to go up.



Thanks
Anil
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Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.
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