May 16 Update

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Dear Investor,

Market is trying to make its effort to move higher. Lot of bottom hunting is going on. Nothing is helping to move markets higher. India stock or US stocks, all are having tough time holding there gains. As soon as buyers show up, lot of sellers show up. Its hard to hold gains. Nothing to say that market will not bounce hard Monday because it is extreme volatile situation.

As I look through the 30 minute chart, nothing promising is visible. We have started to base out in 5100 to 5200 range. Any break above or below will give birth to next move. Especially after 1 year near 100% gain, most people want to just watch the game form outside rather that be a part of turbulence. Just read an article about record amount of money have moved into US bonds and treasuries. That is signal that many are willing to be out assuming limited upside from here.

One thing is sure in my mind that until next earnings season comes close, people have no reason to bid up share prices but you never know. I feel like, big boys handing shares to retailers to hold on while they go party. Eventually all the stocks are going to move higher and move high faster. If you have holding capacity then just hold your stock as long as they are above 150 day moving average line.

HCL Technology is moving out of base. This stock has be flat from last September till today. It just started to move higher. Only thing that prevents me from taking position is that overall market is not supporting up move. Greece and Europe fears are ruling peoples mind. People buying gold like crazy as if world is going fall apart. Investing has just become tough.

As a last thought before I finish, If all the good stocks going to go up eventually then what is the point in trading everyday or checking the index every 15 minutes?

I am thinking hard about why people should trade everyday? Almost all good company (not speculative) stocks will go up to adjust with growth and inflation in India. Then why be active investor check stocks everyday. Let me know your thoughts.

I think if you are lazy investor then you will make money over the period of time. No doubt about that. But the active investor is looking for quick gains and want to shift money where growth is. I belong to the next group. Important question to answer is how to identify those growing stocks and keep switching money to better growth stocks than just sitting around with few stocks for life.

Thanks

Anil

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