Nifty Long and Short Term Picture

Dear Investor,
Nifty has a long term good news and short term risky news. Risky applies to either big profit or big loss. The point is opportunities will always be there, it depends which side of the game you are on. Most of us are usually on the wrong side and hence loose money.

Following is a long term monthly chart of NIFTY index. It is screaming a BUY signal as of last weekend. There is a loss of momentum but bias of long term bull market should be active in your mind. What this means is you will buy weekness in this market. Well, there is a catch in such situation. Even though the market is overall buy, there will be quick rallies and deep corrections. How to judge the time is right. I will show in next picture.

Following is daily chart of NIFTY with the same indicators of monthly chart are drawn and it is plotted on daily basis. I see a sell signal on daily chart. The point to take with you is that its not necessary to trade  each and every move in the market. There will be times when you need not trade. Let the market line up for you to take positions.

I have not given in any clear buy recommendations as before in last few months. The reason is I don't see that kind of set up. Market is just going up and down without any clear direction. Now with monthly long term picture is clearly on bullish side, I guess we could raise our risk appetite. Again its the overall long term picture. Daily 100-200 point moves are not ruled out. those will be the part of the game while overall everything moves up. I guess is it might not pick up steam quickly. But you never know the market.

OMAXE is giving bullish signs to buy and hold this stock. I will be watching it for close above 150 day line. that will confirm the long side of this stock. The setup is very bullish though.

If you have observed how bharti acted after my previous blog, you must have noticed that it did not make it to 325. it reversed from its recent high. That is a reason I like to wait for stock to close above its previous high and stay there for 3-4 weeks.

Do not get emotionally carried away with this current move. We in general are worried about missing out on gain. We don't mind loosing money because everybody is loosing at the same time but missing out and watching others grow is just not acceptable. Those are the moments where people end up making wrong decisions. Do your analysis before you buy any stock. The opprotunity is coming and its coming in a big way. Patience it key. We are in Long term bull market. Cheers



Thanks
Anil
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Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Amazing Setups for few stocks

Dear Investor,

What can I say? Resilient India Market is holding and growing stronger than anybody could imagine. It amazes me, who is buying. Especially stocks are no longer cheaper to buy SBI, L&T are near there previous high levels. NIFTY made new high and reversed. Huge volumes on chart show how much money is on sideline just waiting for opportunity. Axis bank at near high. Its so much strength signaling new renewed buying interest to return to the market. It might not happen is a day or two but certainly that is what the setup looks like. Well, I am not suggesting deploy all your funds right now. We have to change our thinking to buy weakness. Get over the anxiety of deep market corrections. Any sell off is your opportunity. Right now market is very overbought condition so a wait is advised.

Bharti Airtel is moving out of the base. Lets see if it closes above 325 and stays there. That will be good entry point. It has made a classic double V pattern which is very bullish pattern. The setup will complete at 325 and from there next journey will being. Keep an eye and don't be over excited because it is rallying right now. The true test of bullishness is at 325.

Bombay Rayon gave a recent breakout on higher side. We will know in few days if its a fakeout or breakout.

I have been watching Development Credit Bank for some time. It has very positive characteristics just lacks the momentum. It could easily double as the market rallies

Gati has given nice break above its resistance. Lets watch more. It should hold 73 going forward.

IOB is another one to watch

 

Wockhardt getting ready to move.

Thanks
Anil
Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members:
email:indiastocktrend@gmail.com
Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

World Market Picture is Weak

Dear Investor,

Well, you already know that American Markets sold off very hard last Friday. There was apparently no bad news to fuel such action. Big cap companies are reporting good earnings and stocks just get sold off. It appears as if somebody was waiting for good earnings to be reported so that he could sell his stock for a premium and get out of it.

India markets have similarly pumped up the share prices in anticipation of better earnings report. I could just feel the eagerness to sell the stock as soon as the earnings report comes out. Well, overall there is sell sign on NIFTY index. Expect some kind of correction in markets.

Lets look at some global markets. We have maintained our bullishness very strong as compared to other markets. Other markets are in clear bear market territory. That means that they are clearly below 150 day moving average line.

For NIFTY the support would be around 5088. Even though there is clear loss of momentum we are still strong and in bull phase. Perhaps may be in the topping phase.



European markets have been in bear market for quite some time. These markets have bounced back in past few weeks in anticipation of good earnings. This should be a good shorting point for Europe index.




American stocks have been in bear market (below 150 day moving line). It is behaving week during earnings season. Even though the companies report great earnings the market is selling off. Its hard to believe that bear phase has already started and taking hold of trader Psyche in America. Deflation talk is gathering some steam. That is a good strategy deployed by market makers to get selling started. It gives them plenty of opportunity to gobble up best of the stocks are mediocre prices. Fear will take hold in next few days and deflation air will blow are full steam.



As a bright spot in this gloomy blog is Gitanjali Gems which is giving clear buy sign. If we were is strong bull market this stock would be a buy. In overall global week environment it is likely that most of the stocks will be pulled down.



Even though selling is likely to occur in this market, its not going to be end of the world as some say. Those with money will get good buying price. As of today most of the stocks I checked from NIFTY Index are either in bear phase or near there respective TOP prices. Lets see how this week unfolds because this one is going to be action packed for sure.

Thanks

Anil

Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members:

email:indiastocktrend@gmail.com

Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

NIFTY in last one year

Dear Investor,

Last one year from July 2009 to July 2010, Stock market has been moving in the range of 4500 to 5300. Every time market goes down to 4700 it has reversed. What's amazing is most of the worlds other markets have not been able to hold this kind of range bound action. Most of of them including in US stock markets are in bear market.

I find India's stock market is very strong and its not letting anything take it down. 150 day moving average has been a strong support. Personally I feel, any correction is a buy in this market. Unfortunately we do not get strong corrections. Any ways, We will find our way out.

Following chart is one year range. Nothing much has really happened. I think, the big show is about to begin anytime soon as soon as we leave this base. The bias is more towards upside but you never know. There is no confirmation of the next move. Guesswork does not help. You need solid confirmation on either side.

IndiaBulls Financial Services has some convincing action going on. A consistent close above 165 will pave a way for its next wave. I am not putting anything on active buy list because of a crappy global environment. Since traders are so news driven, with upcoming European Bank Stress Test Results, It is very risky environment. Its good to be picky and touch where you have less risk.

This chart pattern is called cup with handle pattern. Its just text book formation of buy. We also have huge confirmation volume. Only we need to wait for it is close above 165 and stay above for 3-4 days. That should clear the way for target of 215.

Federal Bank is very very bullish stock. It is overextended in its trading. Huge buying volume suggest that people just can't wait to get their hands on this guy. Well, That's not very good sign but technically its very sound stock to have in your portfolio.

You must be wondering why I ask you to wait for 3-4 days of close above its resistance price. Take a look at the following TV 18 Price action. This stock came crashing down in past two days after reaching its resistance price. This is a trap we need to avoid and hence the wait is worth the time and your money.

Thanks

Anil

Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members:

email:indiastocktrend@gmail.com

Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.