Breakout above 5300 to bring excitement

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We are on the verge of new breakout of NIFTY. This will be wonderful for many of us. People will get excited just before the earnings season arrives in few weeks. Short sellers will be forced to cover there positions. That will move the market even higher. This is what I think market will do but it could also surprise by correcting itself.


Greece crisis is such a confusion. I just do not understand what they do. I do not like to trade in such crisis moments. Its highly impossible to predict what will actually happen at the end of it. If European Union gives enough loans to Greece then Euro will strengthen and Markets will go higher. That will also move the NIFTY stocks. What happens if they give less loans? What happens if they do not give loans. Frankly, I do not have enough knowledge to comment on this topic. Only thing I care is what will happen to our markets. We are sitting near the highs.


It looks like a healthy market. Neither greed not fear is ruling this market. Everything is going in a balanced fashion. Many are not willing to bet on the market yet. It is quietly building base. One thing I know for sure, once we break this resistance and earning season volatility is done with, this market will go skyrocketing. The reason I say so it not economical or emotional. The reason is that the market spent so many months building the base. Once the foundation is in place, building a tower does not take long. I believe the tower will hold.


Just at this point in time, especially before the earnings season the risk will be lot more than normal. It also means higher possibility of profit as well as loss.


Get ready for action. Its coming.


I just hope this Greece thing is out of our way sooner than later. Let them give them money or no money but just close the topic. Previous correction was because of this Greece crisis and lets hope we do not have another correction just because of that.


Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Thanks
Anil
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Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Why does it look like 2008 again?

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Why does it look like 2008 again? This is the question jumping in my mind when I scanned all my favorite charts on weekly scale. I have printed few of those below. If you closely observe each chart, you will find that some 2008 patterns are emerging in these stocks. This is the case with almost 80% of stocks I watch.


I do not mean to scare you away or predict a crash is coming. I want you to be aware that there is a similar situation getting developed even though market is moving higher. Only 20% of stocks in NIFTY like Hero Honda, Siemens and ACC etc are moving the market higher. Rest of the stocks are lagging.


My intention to write this blog is to educate you to read the market situation. Market makers are the smarted breed of people working to take money away from excited emotional investors. Don't you understand already that stock do not move because they are good or bad. Stocks do not move because they are making good money or PE ratio is low. If that is the case, then stock should move only 4 times in a quarter. After earnings. But that is not the case. Stocks move up and down every day. They move on emotions and emotions only. Learn this. Learn this well, if want to walk out positive.


Some people buy as soon as the stock drops. They think it is cheap now and the stock becomes more cheaper later as happening in case of Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communication. You need to learn when to invest instead people just push money and wait for things to workout. This strategy has worked well in bull markets where everything just goes up so no need to think.

Today's situation on superficial level looks like a bull market and when I scan the charts, I see stock breaking down. Look at any sugar stock, they are going down. Will you buy those because they are cheap. I don't think that is wise. In fact those are at perfect short point.

any way, long story short. Market is making new highs, that is bullish. But many stocks are breaking below 21 week line as you can see. 21 week line is similar to 150 day line of daily chart. Watch your money and be extra cautious in coming earnings season rally.


Learn it before you earn it.


Closely look at the NIFTY weekly chart now and in the 2008. The pattern looks similar. If we are able to break 5500 then I think we will rally lot more. Current situation does not look like that to me. See the point is, I see emotional outburst missing. I do not see people are buying like crazy. I do not see people betting all their money on a single stock. I do not see those kind of frantic actions and that is the reason we will not breakout just like that. That madness has to come to break big resistance of 5500.



Doesn't this chart look similar to 2008?

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especially this week, I request you to forward this email to all your good friends to spread the knowledge and wealth.

I am sure you will forward it to most of your circle

Thanks
Anil
Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members: mailto:indiastocktrend@gmail.com


Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

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Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Ambuja Cement

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Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Thanks
Anil
Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members: mailto:indiastocktrend@gmail.com


Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Few Eye Catching Stock Charts

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Overall tone of the market is very bullish. US market closed high with very good volume, that will send positive triggers around the world markets. We will see some positive movement in India as well.

Market exactly bottomed at 150 day line. Now it is starting its earnings season expectation rally. More buyers are stepping in to take risk which will get some novice investors to get excited and pay premium for few stocks. The good part about bull markets is that everybody makes money even if are just a beginner. The opportunity is ample and money supply is good.

I keep talking about panic buying and panic selling in few of my blogs. Somehow, this Fridays rally appeared to me as a panic buying. As if the market will not give any opportunity later and just keep moving higher. The market gapped up in the opening. Almost 80% orders on stock exchange were buy orders. This kind of behavior generally marks the end of current rally and short term correction follows.

We are in a bull market and we will not change our views until market closes below 150 day average line for at least 6 weeks. Rallies and corrections will be part of this game.

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

United Phosphorous

Suzlon

Hero Honda - its breakout from trading range gives me even more bullish sentiment. Hero honda and Maruti were the leaders of the market in last rally. Hero honda could be a signal that new leg up will unfold soon.

First Source Solutions

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Thanks
Anil
Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members: Ask Anil at indiastocktrend@gmail.com


Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

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Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

More Member Queries

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Zenith Birla is ready for some good move. I will add it to the recommendation list. You must wait for it to close above 32. That will be the true breakout.

Tech Mahindra in very oversold condition. Some bounce with market is possible. Taking support at 150 day line.

Soma textiles is a flat stock. It does not have enough pressure to move on either side in near future.

I like Mundra port. It has moved above the resistance line and very good volume buying is taking place. I will add it to the recommendation. Some kind of pullback is likely.

Elecon appears to have come towards end of its downtrend.

Bank of Rajastan at critical point to move forward. Wait for few more days to see the trend.

Thanks
Anil
Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members: mailto:indiastocktrend@gmail.com


Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Reponse to Member Questions

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Responding to question from few members. Usually I respond to individual member as I receive questions. This time I decided to respond because this is a good question to understand, how we trade.

SBI is below 150 day line. It is consolidating in very close range. We also saw very good volume for past two days. It is a good candidate to take risk. Better to wait for it to close above 2000. That will confirm the uptrend.

Reliance is below 150 day line. Taking support at 400 day line. Still in downtrend as indicated by blue line. Must wait for it to break out of 999 price and close above that.

DLF is getting sold like crazy. Clearly below 150 day line. After first day of buying, next day was immediately sold heavily. Must wait for it to close above 305.

ABAN offshore is below 150 day line. Trading in very tight range. Good buying volume for past two days. Good idea to wait for it to close above 1250.

From emotional understanding of the current market pshychology, It has become hard to control emotions to not to own stocks. The market is pushing higher, just near its high. Personally I feel, people will be compelled to buy stocks. The urge to buy will be very very strong. It is good to buy but buy will good reasons. Just don't buy because the stocks are cheap. Cheap stocks can get more cheaper especially the once below 150 day line.

Watch the 150 day line at finance.google.com or any of your other favorite site.

Thanks
Anil
Got a Question/Send your contributions for other members: mailto:indiastocktrend@gmail.com


Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.