Near the most important support line

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Dear Investor,

Following are few charts for you to understand where we stand today.

We are almost where we were in July 2009. Its the most important support we must hold in order to go back up. I don't mean to say it should start rising right away. But it should just stay here and around some range near those prices.

We just wiped out all the gains since July 2009.

Thanks
Anil



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LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Selling probably is completed. May be time to buy has arrived.

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Dear Investor,

We had a panic sell off yesterday. Look at the red volume lines below. Too many people throw in the towel and rushed back home. That's what the market needs to get you out. I am still with my bullish sentiment meter. We will see in next few days if this was really a bottom for now and next leg up would begin. I am flexible and change as the market changes.

The important point is to know why to take the stand what you take. I will be become a all out bear if market closed below the blue line in following image. Until then every dip is a buy. Market is dipping for last few days then why only yesterday dip. The reason is Very high volume selling. We might have few more days like this but you can't really catch the bottom of this thing. We should start looking at opportunities now.

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Buy Sundaram Fastners Up to 48 Stop loss 35 Book Profit around 60

The reason I think this is a buy because when the market fell every day, this stock kept moving up. The meaning is that somebody knows the value of this and is accumulating. We will sell is below 35 because then it would mean that it was a fake move. Why stop 35 and not 33 or 37? If you carefully look the chart below, you will find that it always took support at 35. That means investors don't sell it below 35.

Tata Tea found support in the market washout of yesterday. Not bad for quick trade.

Buy Tata Tea up to 860 Stop Loss 810 Book Profit around 900

Wipro is another stock which is defying the market action.

Follow few simple rules

1. No single position more that 10% of your portfolio.

2. Do your home work. Don't buy because somebody told you.

3. Keep the stock longer. Time will make you more money than timing the market.

4. We are in bull market until we close below 4200.

5. Always keep some money on sideline.

6. Enjoy life all the time, because we have only one to live.

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

USD under accumulation

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Dear Investor,


The equation is changing. Easy money is leaving the market. Check the following chart of US Dollar. Observe the volume for past three days. Huge jump in volume. I think people are expecting something strong from FED meeting tomorrow. That will either make or break the markets. If you can wait for tomorrow before making your trades it should help. Market is not going anywhere. It will always be there for you to play.


If US Dollar accumulation trend continues, I guess not very good for stocks.



I do not give intraday trades at this blog site. I do not have equipment and resources to do it. My analysis is end of day. It is for short to medium term investor. Since the market is not in good health, I have not posted any tips lately. Lets miss some gains when we don't understand the situation. I have had few people desperately looking for tips, unfortunately its not the good environment to do it. Desperation will cost you too much money. Investing is an art to enjoy. The one who panics or gets excited or gets desperate will be used by the market and eventually be punished for not having emotion control.


We will get excited when the equation changes.


NIFTY has touched 50 day moving average line. Check the green line on NIFTY chart

We will know if it holds it or breaks it in next two days. Standby and meanwhile go out and enjoy life.


( Those people who are in for more than 2-3 years and have stocks of good companies should not panic and sell out soon. Market has not given any crashing signals yet. We are well above 150 day moving average line. Do your analysis and take good decision )

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Somebody is quitely loading up Cranes Software

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Dear Investor,

Check Our Current Recommendations

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Buy Cranes software above 45

Somebody is loading up Cranes software. Keep an eye on it. If closes above 45 and stays above that level for 6 days, consider taking your position. Do not hurry in taking you position. After the quite period it will not double in a day or two. It will give you enough time to buy above 50. We are not looking to make 5 - 6 Rs gain. The pattern it is forming is extremely bullish and should render 50 to 70% gains.

Take your time. Keep watching and then buy above 45

Nifty update is that it is trading on very light volume. Slight downtrend since it closed below 21 day average line. Lets see if it holds. The most critical level is 4600. It will be either be a buy point or exit point based upon its strength at that level. For now we are holding 4900.

If you have read my previous blog, I mentioned that OCT is not a good month to invest and we can see that from the portfolio link above. If you booked profits in last week, you were lucky. Most of the stop loss have not hit yet, thats a great sign. Lets see what tone market takes going forward.

The next catalyst for continued uptrend is missing for now. In fact we have a bad news at our doorstep.

There is big news circulating about dollar strength. If you understand chart, check the strength of this move

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p37193263057&cmd=print

This could be huge if gathers momentum since FII's will be forced to sell and convert money into Dollars. Right now they have invested cheap dollars and dollar strenth could change the entire equation.

Remember we are in a bull market until we close below 4200 constantly for six weeks, until then we are in for buying the dips in market. In fact 4200 will be a great entry for us.

Stay alert, Keep your stop loss ready in case you need them. Upside appears limited for now so avoid new investments only manage your existing positions.

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Waiting for next move

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Dear Investor,

Check Our Current Recommendations

I have not recommended anything recently since most of the NIFTY leaders are behaving very different. Maruti Udyog, Nestle and Hero Honda were the leaders of this rally. They have started to sell off on heavy volume. Its a red flag for us and we need to wait for few days until the leaders start rising again.

Nobody really made wealth by day trading a stock. Its a myth that you will make big money in those big daily moves. Few blessed with inside information could only make such wealth. For rest of us we should be focused on short to medium term trading.

You must know the reason why you bought and why you would sell. Right now we are in bull market. It means there will be few scare the people sell offs. The sell offs are designed to kick out the weak hearts and get their money. After the sell off ends, everything will rise together and you will not have any entry point.

So trade with medium term view. Hold your positions. Don't get afraid until your stop loss is hit. This market will keep rising going forward. A serious correction will be really nice for all of us. Unfortunately it has not happened for so long.

GeoMetric is showing some strength. If it sucessfully closed abot 53 for few days you could consider adding it to your portfolio. Similar case with Nucleus software.

Learn to stop trading when it does not make sense. Wait patiently and market will present you the opportunities.


Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Why Stop Loss is important?

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Dear Investor,

Wish you all Happy Diwali and lots of money in stock market in 2009-2010. May God bring health and peace of mind to you and your family. Greatly thankful to you for reading my blog and supporting me. You are best.

Check Our Current Recommendations

Lets understand Why I always insist on Stop Loss. These words create instant negative image in our mind because of word loss in it. Certainly its bad if you have to take it. Here is what I want you to understand.

1. Stocks always keep going up and down (It vibrates)
2. Stocks go down as soon as you buy them...almost always ( Some may be just lucky but not the rest of us )
3. Stocks go up as soon as you sell them or they are not in your portfolio
4. You must hold stock at least for 12 days unless your stop loss is hit

Predetermined stop loss, gives you ability to stay in the stock even though you see a red color in your position. Again, it gives you ability to stay in the stock even though you see a loss in your position. It is very important to hold in that condition. You must hold until the stop loss price is hit then and then only you will see the growth in your money. You need greater emotional control and detachment from money there. This is my message for 2009 Diwali to you. Hold until stop loss is hit. No selling until that point. Just keep it. As soon as your stop loss is hit you must exit and book the loss.

Another great news for all of us that we have long term buy signal on NIFTY.

NIFTY has given the most important long term buy signal. Similar to the one which we got in 2003. That means long term bull market is launched this weekend. There will be corrections and run up higher but structurally we are at the beginning of huge bull market. I want to stress on the word beginning of the bull market. Its important to carry this mindset in your trading going forward. Look at the following chart why I say so.

This is monthly chart of NIFTY for past 10 years



Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Housing Development & Infrastructure - HDIL - Stop Loss 330 Book Profit 500
Uptrend already started



Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals - GSFC - Stop loss 140 - Book Profit 265
Uptrend about to begin



Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Petron Engg

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Dear Investor,

Please add following stocks to your watch list

PETRON ENGG CONSTRUCT LTD Buy up to 187 Stop Loss 140 Book Profit 220-280
ICSA India Ltd. Buy up to 220 Stop Loss 190 Book Profit 350


Satyam Computers has come close to its near term resistance. Once it clears the resistance it should try to run higher. We must wait for it to clear the hurdle though.

Day traders : Apollo tyre could give quick gains or quick losses too.

Lot of actions in banks. Not sure what to do. We have South Indian bank on our list and also Federal bank from last month.

PS. Never bet all your money on one single stock. You need some capital to be in the game. So play safe.

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Welspun Gujrat

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Dear Investor,

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Welspun Gujrat is trading on lighter volume than what you would like to see. The trend is up and its a strong trend. Past few weeks its trying to move higher. The movement is slow so this one might not work for day traders. Good for medium term investor.

Welspun Gujrat Stop loss at 226 Book Profit at 347



Great earnings are being released in US market so it appears that the problems of economy were hyped up. New bear market thinking is taking hold but why believe in that when whole market is holding well. We will see when it starts to correct.

Day traders could keep an eye on PTC, Ador Welding and Shiv Vani Oil. Good volume trading is happening here.


Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

South India Bank and Hotel Leela for risk takers

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Dear Investor,

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

South Indian Bank is on march. Recently it moved above its resistance line at 131. We are actually very late to this party but better late than never. Please keep your stop loss tight. Market is toppy. These trade are for more aggressive traders who quickly get out if situation changes rapidly. Deploy limited capital, add more if you see your position in green.

South Indian Bank Buy upto 132 Stop Loss 109 Book Profit 160

Hotel Leela is in perfect Cup with Handle pattern. Its a long term bullish sign. I see good volume popping up the stock. This one could easily go to 60. Again accumulate slowly.

Hotel Leela Buy upto 41 Stop Loss 33 Book Profit at 50

In general market has been strong all over the world. Early earning reports are coming good in US so likely to be good earnings season. Besides the fact market is bullish we must be ready to switch the positions when the market tells us. Update on US dollar is that it is still weak so the stock markets will continue to be strong.

I want to thank all of you to be reader of this blog and helping me build the subscriber list. We are already above 500. I have to tell you about the short term trading technique. I will write a blog on that soon.

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Jet Airways Breaking out

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Dear Investor,

Please add following stocks to your watchlist

Jet Airways is breaking out on heavy volume. If you buy it keep your stop loss at 360.

Bajaj Finserv, Gammon India could be also be watched

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Not a single one found

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Dear Investor,

Please add following stocks to your watch list

I have not added any positions to the Oct 2009 portfolio yet. The reason is simple, I am not able to find a single one. All the stocks show green at superficial level but when I look at the charts. Its not convincing.

Those who have already missed out on huge rally are extremely impatient now. They are willing to throw in money at the market because it always goes up. It has been for past 6 months. We are on the verge on earnings season. Stocks are pausing and waiting for actual results. They have priced in huge growth already. They will check if the stocks prove them right otherwise they will exit. The trend is still bullish and has lost the momentum for now.

I want to show you something very interesting regarding US Dollar value and NIFTY performance relationship. Past few months US dollar is continuously loosing value and hence putting pressure on International money managers to keep buying emerging market stocks to retain the value of their money.

Following is chart of $USD. Since March of 2009 it has been continuously dropping. This is where FII's are forced to buy other assets to preserve their value of money. At the end of this chart is pressure gauge MACD. MACD tells us if the buying pressure is on or Selling pressure is on. Right now the selling pressure is reducing. What I mean is the rate of sell off in USD is reduced to a such a point that it could give a buy signal. That will be very bad of NIFTY. We will see that in next chart.

Look at the NIFTY chart generated by the same software. Exactly after Mar 2009 the market took off and FII's kept buying. I told many times that FII's are buying like no tomorrow. The reason is very clear from above chart. As long as USD keeps loosing value the markets will keep rising. Recently we have seen rate of rise has reduced. What do you think happened? I guess, the rate of USD fall has reduced and same is reflected in charts below. Please note the MACD pressure guage at the bottom. The buying pressure is reduced on NIFTY.

Let's put both the charts together. The line with red color is USD and the other black line is NIFTY. Its clear like water that they are in some relation to each other. The dollar falls, NIFTY rises and dollar gains causing NIFTY to fall. If we end up seeing some correction, It could be certainly linked to USD and not the performance of Indian companies. It does not matter, as the dollar rises, FII sell their stock. Thats the rule they learn in their trading schools. They make no exceptions to their rules.

The economic picture of USD is very bad for now. We do not know when it will improve but this is a trading world. We buy because others are buying and we sell becuase others are selling. Thats why fundamental analysis does not prove itself right all the time. Its either buy buy buy or sell sell sell. When the buy buy buy starts on dollar nobody will look at the fundamentals.

I am not finding any stocks which would invite money as of now. I just don't want to give any stock and burn with it. I am staying away from the market for this month. Unless I am convinced that its the right time to enter which I will only know from charts. Check current recommendations in OCT 2009. It is not working. Right now, I think we should not trade on the feeling on missing out. Missing out has been one of my prominent feeling which made me put the money down. October is not a good month of investors. It might be just helpful to watch the game unfold. If we miss that will be okay. At least we would know what is the next direction of this market. Until then, lets not fight to make money every single day. Its always good to take vacation for your health and money.

Live US Dollar and NIFTY comparison

Thanks
Anil

Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.

Sep 2009 Performance

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Dear Investor,

I believe in having a accountability on what you say and how it performs. Following is the list of stocks we thought of buying in Sep 2009. Most of them have gains and few of those are in tiny losses. These all were selected based on correct chart pattern. When I saw the results, It did not really jump big, I started doubting the rally. We have started new book for Oct 2009. Click here to check the new OCT Recommendations.

I am looking for getting a hand on NIFTY Advance-decline line. If anybody knows where I could see it please email it to me at indiastocktrend@gmail.com

Here is how we did in Sep 2009

Thanks
Anil



Please forward this email to your friends and family members to help them build wealth under technical stock market guidance.

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Spot the buy point)

LIVE NIFTY CHART (Short Term)


Disclaimer: Please trade with your own judgment or with the help of investment advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses.

Stop Loss: Sell Stock if it closes below this price. It tells you that market has proved you wrong. Accept it.